The next phase in cable and fiber networks will witness a focus on a new stage for the widely deployed Hybrid Fiber Coaxial (HFC) networks as telecommunication operators and some cable operators continue to pursue faster Passive Optical Network (PON) and Ethernet technologies.
DOCSIS 4.0 represents the next generation of HFC, achieving symmetric gigabit speeds, enhanced security, and lower latency. As modem manufacturers develop devices powered by new-generation chipsets, products and technologies supporting DOCSIS 4.0 are expected to mature next year. This includes MaxLinear's Puma 8 chipset supporting the Extended Spectrum DOCSIS (ESD) option for D4.0 and Broadcom's unified chip, supported by Comcast, which backs two types of DOCSIS 4.0: ESD and Full Duplex (FDX).
Outside the network, vendors are expected to continue promoting amplifiers and other external devices focused on the 1.8GHz technology, a key component for future D4.0 upgrades leveraging the ESD option. A significant question for this year is at what pace cable TV operators will begin to meaningfully adopt and deploy 1.8GHz technology.
In terms of FDX, CommScope is expected to make progress in FDX amplifiers, a key component of Comcast's plan to deploy DOCSIS 4.0 in the majority of its operations.
As deployments progress, Comcast will continue to lead the way, building on its initial D4.0 deployments in Atlanta, Colorado Springs, and Philadelphia, expanding to introduce a range of new "X-level Internet" tiers providing up to 2 Gbit/s symmetric speeds.
Following a series of field trials in 2023, Comcast is expected to be one of the first cable TV operators to deploy low-latency DOCSIS, an enhanced feature that may be attractive in certain niche markets.
However, DOCSIS 4.0 won't be applicable to all operators, at least not immediately.
As 2023 nears its end, it is evident that cable TV operators in North America and Europe are increasingly interested in the "extension" or "enhanced" form of DOCSIS 3.1, which can help them extract higher speeds from traditional D3.1 networks. Both MaxLinear and Broadcom support this effort at the chipset level, laying the groundwork for an enhanced D3.1 to become a more significant story in 2024, potentially overshadowing D4.0.
Among telecom operators, there is expected to be a greater enthusiasm for using XGS-PON as a running option. However, as some fiber service providers focus more on speeds exceeding 10 Gbit/s and expand the pursuit of 25G PON technology, the more advanced forms of this technology should see some additional developments.
Telecom companies' ambitions may not stop there. Some industry experts believe that 25G PON is the current generation technology, with 100G being the next significant advancement.
Expectations also include more instances where PON is not the primary part of the picture. A recent example is Ziply Fiber, leveraging Ethernet connectivity to power a new (highly targeted) 50 Gbit/s residential broadband service, priced at a whopping $900 per month.
Cable TV will also enter the fiber industry in a more substantial way. Fiber and PON have become the main focus of CableLabs, with CableLabs advancing two fiber-focused working groups, one exploring the DOCSIS framework for implementing ITU-based PON standards, including XGS-PON.
As cable TV operators continue to incorporate PON into their deployment plans for targeted fiber node deployments and broader greenfield deployments, including various rural construction projects funded by government assistance programs, these projects are converging. According to a recent survey by Omdia, approximately 35% of cable TV operators have already deployed PON in their networks, and another 47% of operators expect to do so next year.